Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.745037 2.923214 3.118910 3.352286 3.626523 3.943297 4.344424
2025-03-02 2.499409 2.733895 3.007764 3.359413 3.812603 4.399831 5.265600
2025-03-09 2.340916 2.603350 2.922108 3.352419 3.945774 4.789523 6.222971
2025-03-16 2.203975 2.477632 2.818762 3.295492 3.986121 5.042994 7.081875
2025-03-23 2.139984 2.433335 2.809379 3.355583 4.194015 5.602106 8.874542
2025-03-30 2.035905 2.328170 2.708129 3.271160 4.162852 5.743013 9.901660
2025-04-06 1.942182 2.229984 2.607930 3.176197 4.097442 5.799902 10.792790
2025-04-13 1.870949 2.157101 2.536806 3.116473 4.079949 5.945547 12.208209
2025-04-20 1.842590 2.139223 2.539824 3.167696 4.258820 6.567343 17.205924
2025-04-27 1.833851 2.146680 2.578162 3.276724 4.562578 7.649205 37.656016
2025-05-04 1.796549 2.112526 2.553471 3.280606 4.665382 8.274277 146.257025
2025-05-11 1.761782 2.080067 2.528956 3.281833 4.762691 8.961199 NaN
2025-05-18 1.704707 2.015675 2.455954 3.199057 4.678720 9.018019 NaN
2025-05-25 1.674283 1.987924 2.436856 3.208209 4.799646 9.979932 NaN
2025-06-01 1.642527 1.956783 2.410615 3.202002 4.885026 10.926969 NaN
2025-06-08 1.602505 1.912203 2.361386 3.150360 4.853891 11.299678 NaN
2025-06-15 1.589292 1.905622 2.370385 3.204876 5.094077 13.683141 NaN
2025-06-22 1.548276 1.857121 2.311332 3.128255 4.984589 13.559614 NaN
2025-06-29 1.507102 1.807372 2.248735 3.041817 4.840297 13.075683 NaN
2025-07-06 1.474767 1.769790 2.204230 2.987318 4.775475 13.212831 NaN
2025-07-13 1.465717 1.766003 2.213003 3.034066 4.990640 16.345124 NaN
2025-07-20 1.467406 1.777975 2.247382 3.133311 5.385040 25.381529 NaN
2025-07-27 1.450204 1.761152 2.234082 3.136839 5.496785 32.806507 NaN